This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. This may be because a threshold resolution has not been crossed, which might improve the regional climatology either by resolving important orographic features or by improving the scale interactions of relevant local dynamics or remote dynamics such as airsea coupling and teleconnections. Int J Climatol 33:19241935. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. This variability ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. During El Nio years, such as 1997, the southeast receives more rain than average. } Low Temp: 48 F. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. We also identify three new regions (Central and western Ethiopia, CW-Ethiopia; Southern Ethiopia, S-Ethiopia; and Northeast Ethiopia, NE-Ethiopia) that are complementary to those previously defined here based on distinct SST-rainfall teleconnections that are useful when predicting interannual anomalies. The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. 0000003918 00000 n In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. 2009a, b; Diro et al. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Mekonnen Adnew Degefu. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, Similarly, previous studies (Hastenrath et al. Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. In the United States, the strongest change in rainfall is in the southeast, the region closest to the pool of warm Pacific water. It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. 4. PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { background-color: #024d73; There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. Temperature in Ethiopia averaged 22.88 celsius from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 23.95 celsius in 2009 and a record low of 22.14 celsius in 1967. In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. startxref Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. 2011a). Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. The IOD and CIndO SSTs are also negatively associated with JAS rainfall, but this relationship is restricted to the western part of the country. And percentage of variance explained by C/ ( C0 + C ) = %! However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. It also went extinct between 780,000 and 600,000 years ago. 2011a). Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. Similarly, the SST over southern Indian Ocean shows some significant and negative correlation with the CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall. This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365, Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. <]/Prev 956938>> The Northern part of . doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. 0000088529 00000 n (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. Clim Dyn 37:103119. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. On the other hand, over the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea), the positive SST association with ON Rainfall that is simulated by HadGEM2 is nonexistent in the observations (Fig. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. Figure6ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. 2011; Martin et al. Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). (2011). Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. %PDF-1.7 % doi:10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014. The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. 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